If you’re not a fan of shovelling snow and battling bitter cold temperatures, this year’s winter forecast may be welcome news.
Scientists say Canada is currently experiencing a powerful “super” El Niño, one of the strongest on record. The climate pattern, which originates in the Pacific Ocean, influences weather around the world and is expected to play a major role in shaping Canada’s winter.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in parts of the Pacific become unusually warm. Those warmer waters can alter weather patterns globally, affecting everything from rainfall and drought conditions to seasonal temperatures.
This year’s event has been particularly strong, with ocean temperatures reaching some of the highest levels ever recorded.
What It Could Mean for Canada
Forecasters say much of Canada can expect a warmer than average winter, particularly across central and northern parts of the country.
Historically, strong El Niño winters have produced temperatures several degrees above normal in some regions, especially across the Prairies.
Atlantic Canada has already seen one impact of this year’s El Niño, with an unusually quiet hurricane season compared to many recent years.
Winter Isn’t Being Cancelled
Before anyone puts away their winter coat, experts stress that a warmer than average winter does not mean an absence of winter weather.
Cold snaps, snowstorms, freezing rain, and other seasonal conditions are still expected. The forecast simply suggests that average temperatures over the season may end up above long term norms.
As climate experts point out, weather will continue to vary from day to day and week to week.
Concerns About Dry Conditions
While warmer temperatures may sound appealing, there is a downside.
Strong El Niño events are often associated with drier conditions in parts of western Canada. Reduced precipitation could contribute to drought concerns and potentially increase wildfire risks heading into next year.
Scientists also note that the effects of El Niño are occurring alongside long-term warming trends linked to climate change.
Looking Ahead
The strongest impacts of this year’s El Niño are expected to become more noticeable as winter progresses through December, January, and February.
For now, Canadians can likely expect a winter that is generally milder than normal, but still capable of delivering all the snow, ice, and cold weather that comes with living in Canada.
In other words, winter may be a little easier this year, but it’s still winter.
